Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
